A United Ireland Referendum Should Not Become 'A Repeat of Brexit', Commentators Alert

Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."